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Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
Dirty Rotten Scoundrels by Rob Kirby The purpose of this paper is to draw particular attention to the recent disparity in crude oil prices – namely the difference between two benchmarks - West Texas Intermediate [WTI] and Brent [North Sea] Crude. Historically the price of WTI trades at ...
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Article
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2011-02-09
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Why Gold and Silver Have Declined
Kirbyanalytics subscribers received the following fast blast appended below late Tuesday night, Jan. 25, 2011: The Thompson Reuters CRB index weighting has not changed since 2005. However, virtually all other commodities related indexes do rebalance in early Jan of every year. For insta...
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Article
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2011-01-27
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Getting a Handle on Inflation
Official statistics show that inflation is under control, running at approximately 2-3% per year, and the mainstream press has a long list of 'experts' who endorse this position. However, this inflation data has undergone systematic adjustments that render it corrupt beyond belief. An alternative m...
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Bullion Buzz
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2008-02-19
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Understanding the Great Disconnect
Recently, some of the financial industry's most respected experts have weighed in on the developing sub-prime/CDO debt debacle. Bill Gross, manager of PIMCO, the world's largest bond fund, says that woes plaguing the subprime mortgage market are spreading to junk bonds. Credit markets are facing a ...
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Bullion Buzz
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2007-07-31
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LCTM Revisited - A Forensic Account
Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) was a hedge fund founded in 1994 by a group of ex-Salomon Brothers bond traders. On its board of directors were Myron Scholes and Robert C. Merton, who shared the 1997 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics. Initially enormously successful with annualized returns of o...
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Bullion Buzz
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2007-07-24
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The Ibbotson Report Revisited
Kirby looked to the Ibbotson study of 2005, Portfolio Diversification with Gold, Silver and Platinum, to confirm his belief that the gold price is manipulated. The study notes that bond returns (or market interest rates) used to be negatively correlated to equity returns, a long-held relationship t...
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Bullion Buzz
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2006-08-15
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The Looming Fiat Currency Train Wreck
The mainstream media globally attributes rising gold and oil prices to Iran's nuclear aspirations, while completely ignoring the dark reality of the currency train wreck right before our eyes. Consider that Iran produces 2.6 million barrels of oil per day, or a total of 56.16 billion euros' worth o...
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Bullion Buzz
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2006-01-24
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Twilight At The Fed: Subliminal Parallels
Using the most sophisticated technologies available, the Arabian Peninsula has been scoured for oil deposits. Five of its giant oil fields account for 90 percent of the world's current production, and 60 percent of Saudi output comes from one field alone - Ghawar. Unfortunately, the Middle East is ...
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Bullion Buzz
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2005-08-16
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A Stroke Of Genius!
No one in the investment community should underestimate the importance of a recent report by Ibbotson Associates, the quintessential authority on optimal asset allocation, writes Kirby. Portfolio Diversification with Gold, Silver, and Platinum tracks seven major asset classes over a 33-year period ...
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Bullion Buzz
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2005-08-09
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Texas Hold 'Em Or Know When To Fold Them?
Peculiarities in the gold market are just one component in a much larger, multi-faceted puzzle, writes Kirby in this essay on global wealth, how it is distributed and the underpinnings of the world's fiat monetary system. The real question for Kirby is what will ultimately replace the current fiat ...
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Bullion Buzz
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2005-08-02
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Pirates Reprise
January TIC data published by the US Treasury on March 15, 2005 does not match that on the latest release, issued May 16, 2005. In fact, the numbers have been dramatically altered - after the fact. For the month of January 2005, Japan's holdings of US securities have been altered by over $20 billio...
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Bullion Buzz
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2005-05-24
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Concerning Relationships
Much has been written about the long-standing relationships between commodities in general and specific commodities or financial products in particular. These relationships warrant close monitoring in uncertain times, when breaks from traditional ranges often warn of larger impending moves in the p...
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Bullion Buzz
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2005-05-03
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Curiosity Concerning Conundrums
Kirby discusses the current puzzling interest rate environment. The Fed is in trouble; it cannot raise 5 - 10 year interest rates without risking the entire financial system, but the market itself will raise rates if the Fed fails to do so. Both scenarios have the potential to end disastrously, wit...
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Bullion Buzz
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2005-04-26
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Moscow On The Hudson
Kirby documents the events leading up to the fall of communism in the Soviet Union, and discusses how that era mirrors what is happening in the world today. In the 1980s, the Soviets ran into various problems related to maintaining an empire and waging war, problems that were exacerbated by the act...
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Bullion Buzz
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2005-01-11
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Canaries And Coal Mines
We've all heard about the practice of using canaries to detect the presence of deadly gases in coal mines, and Kirby likens this early warning system to the roles the PPI, the CPI, and precious metals prices play in gauging problems in the economy. Big upside swings in any of these signals inflatio...
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Bullion Buzz
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2004-10-19
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It's A Bubble
Economic growth forecasts show the global economy is likely to increase by up to 4 percent this year - well above the long-term trend rate of 2.25 percent. Oil prices, car sales, the real estate market - all are experiencing rising markets resulting from the easy-money policy of the US Federal Rese...
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Bullion Buzz
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2004-04-13
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