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David Chapman

David is a Technical Strategist with MGI Securities. He regularly writes articles of interest to the investing public. David has over 30 years of experience as an authority on finance and investment, through his range of work experience and in-depth market knowledge. David has his own website at www.davidchapman.com.

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Chart of the Week: Gold's Long-Term Uptrend is Still Intact

  I thought I would show once again the long-term monthly chart of gold to demonstrate that despite the recent drop the long-term uptrend for gold remains intact. The current drop could either be a test of those lows or even a sudden thrust to new lows. There remains potential objectives down ... 		Article 2013-05-17
Technical Commentary for May 6, 2013

This week….. The US stock markets surged to new all-time highs following the release of the better than expected nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Despite the new all-time highs there are numerous negative divergences between the indicators and the price action of the markets. $85 billion a month ... 		Article 2013-05-06
Technical Commentary for April 22, 2013

This week…. The US stock market put in its worst week since November 2012. The NASDAQ broke down and the DJT did not confirm with the DJI. So is a top in? The S&P 500 needs to break under 1,540 to suggest that a top might be in and a top would not be confirmed until the market broke unde... 		Article 2013-04-22
Chart of the Week: Where's the Beef?

  If anyone ever wondered why the US economy is so sluggish they need not look any further than the velocity of money or velocity of currency as it has sometimes known. The truth is that money is simply not moving through the economy at a good pace. As the chart shows the velocity of money has... 		Article 2013-03-14
Technical Commentary for March 11, 2013

This week…. The S&P 500 had a sharp up week following the release of the nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The DJI and DJT made new all-time (nominal) highs. The S&P 500 is within 1% of its all-time (nominal) high seen in October 2007. All indices are nearing the top of a bull channel agai... 		Article 2013-03-11
Technical Commentary for March 4, 2013

This week…. The sequester came and the S&P 500 shrugged it off with a small gain on the week. Both the DJI and DJT made new highs. If the S&P 500 can make new highs above 1,531 (the most recent high) then odds favour a potential run to 1,550 and even up to 1,600. But if the S&P 5... 		Article 2013-03-04
Chart of the Week: Currency Wars

  The US$ is the world’s reserve currency and has been since the Bretton Woods agreement of July 1944. The purpose of the agreement was to regulate the international monetary system by setting up rules, institutions and procedures. It brought about the International Monetary Fund (IMF) a... 		Article 2013-02-28
Technical Commentary for February 25, 2013

This week….. For the first time in 2013 the S&P 500 faltered and fell on the week. The S&P 500 and golds in particular fell because of comments from Fed dissenters on the FOMC concerning the Fed’s program of QE. However, as was noted by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke the benefits ou... 		Article 2013-02-25
Chart of the Week: Gold in a Rut

  These are stressful days for those holding gold bullion and gold stocks. Sentiment in the gold sector has turned quite negative. Sentiment is at or close to the lows seen at the bottom of the market in 2008 and below the levels seen in seen in December 2011 and May 2012. To put things in som... 		Article 2013-02-22
Technical Commentary: February 19, 2013

This week….. The S&P 500 managed to eke out a small gain on the week rising to new highs for the move. The S&P 500 hit one of TC’s long held objectives at 1,525. There are numerous warning signs flashing that this market is getting old and tired. History has shown that the mark... 		Article 2013-02-19
Chart of the Week: Housing Recovery - Not!

  One has to wonder what all the fuss is about that has seen homebuilder shares in the US soar 11% (as measured by the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (ITB-NYSE)) in 2013 thus far and a 78% in 2012. The chart above shows actual sales of new homes and that shows that despite all of the h... 		Article 2013-02-14
The US Monetary Base and Gold

The US Monetary Base and Gold David Chapman A sharp rise in the US monetary base 2008 coincides with the implementation of various quantitative easing programs. We’ve already experienced QE1 and QE2. Under QE3, the Fed is purchasing $85 billion per month in mortgage-backed securities and US T... 		Bullion Buzz 2013-02-13
Chart of the Week: The US Monetary Base and Gold

  Last week COTW noted that the US monetary base had broken out of an 18 to 20 month sideways pattern. The US monetary base first hit $2.7 trillion back in June 2011 and since then it has ranged between $2.7 trillion and $2.6 trillion. That is until January 2012 when the monetary base hit just... 		Article 2013-02-07
Monetary Base Breaking Out! Will Gold Prices Follow?

Monetary Base Breaking Out! Will Gold Prices Follow? David Chapman After 18 months of going sideways, the monetary base appears to be breaking out; no surprise given that the Fed is buying $85 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities and US Treasuries. The Fed also appears to be now buying rou... 		Bullion Buzz 2013-02-06
Technical Commentary: January 4, 2013

This week….. The S&P 500 closed over 1,500 for the first time since October 2007. The Dow Jones Industrials closed over 14,000 also for the first time since 2007. Both indices appear to be headed for the highs of 2007. However, the market is getting long in the tooth and numerous negativ... 		Article 2013-02-04
Chart of the Week: Monetary Base Breaking Out! Will Gold Prices Follow?

  After 18 months of going sideways, the monetary base appears to be breaking out. Given QE3 where the Fed is buying $85 billion a month of securities consisting of $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and $45 billion of US Treasuries. The Fed also appears to be now buying roughly 8... 		Article 2013-01-31
Technical Commentary: January 28, 2013

This week... The S&P 500 closed over 1,500 for the first time since October 2007. Potential objectives remain up to 1,600. The rise has become increasingly steep raising the risk in the market. There are numerous negative divergences across all time frames. In years ending in three tops and bot... 		Article 2013-01-28
Chart of the Week: Dow Theory Revisited

  One of the tenets of Dow Theory is that the stock market averages (indices) must confirm each other. This tenet is probably the best known and possibly the most watched of Dow Theory tenets. This particular tenet has over time proven to be a sign of market tops and bottoms. There are excepti... 		Article 2013-01-17
Technical Commentary: January 14, 2013

This week…. Despite the looming debt ceiling debate the stock markets eked out another gain and are now very close to taking out the September 2012 highs. An outline of what happens in years ending 3 is provided. Whatever happens the high or low for the year has usually taken place in either... 		Article 2013-01-14
Technical Scoop: Chart of the Week - The Unemployment Conundrum

  Everyone is probably familiar with the monthly Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) unemployment rate known as U3 or the headline unemployment rate. On Friday January 4, 2012, the December U3 was reported as being unchanged from the month before at 7.8%. (Note: all figures quoted are for the US... 		Article 2013-01-10

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